Regional Economic Overview

Population

Figure 1

The region experienced slow to moderate population growth during the 1990s and that trend is expected to continue until 2010. Figure 1 illustrates the spatial distribution of population growth for North Carolina. For the 11-county region, five counties (Mitchell, Ashe, Alleghany, Wilkes and Caldwell) had slow population growth (0-15%) while the remaining counties had moderate growth (15.1-30% growth). Across the state, counties with fast population growth (30.1-50%) were mostly distributed in and around urban areas.

Table 1 provides the projected population for each of the 11 counties in the region until 2010. The largest populated county in the region is Catawba County which has approximately a quarter of the area's population. Burke, Caldwell and Wilkes counties follow with the largest county-level populations in the area. Alleghany, Mitchell, Yancey and Avery counties are the least populated counties. Alleghany, Ashe and Wilkes counties make up nearly 20 percent of the region's population and just over 1 percent of the state's population.

Table 1

Education

Figure 2

Figure 2 illustrates the percent of population with a college degree by county for North Carolina. The two largest urban areas, Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham, have the highest rate of college educated people. Most of the counties in the 11-county region fall in the lowest rate of college educated population less than 20%. Watauga County is a notable exception with the presence of Appalachian State University.

Table 2 reports the numbers of college graduates for each of the region's counties for 1990 and 2000. For North Carolina, the number of college graduates grew about 60 percent between 1990 and 2000. Over the same period, the number of college graduates increased about 46 percent in the 11 county region. Ashe County experienced a 70 percent increase in the number of residents having a college degree. In the subregion of Alleghany, Ashe and Wilkes counties, the number of college graduates increased 53 percent over the 10 year period.

Table 2

Labor Market

Income

Figure 3

Figure 3 provides the spatial distribution of median household income by county for North Carolina. Separating median household income in four categories, urban areas of the state generally have the highest median income. The northeast, southeast and far western counties generally fall in the category of lowest median household income. Counties in the 11-county region generally have median household incomes in the two lowest categories.

Table 3 reports per capita income from 1999 to 2002 for each of the 11 counties in the region. Over this period, per capita income for the state increased 8.7 percent and increased at the lower rate of 5.5 percent for the 11-county region. Watauga County had the largest growth in income per capita (13.6 %) while Alleghany had the smallest growth (-2.0 percent). Caldwell and Ashe counties, in addition to Watauga, were the counties in the region with income growth rates matching or exceeding the state growth rate.

Table 3

Employment

Table 4

Table 4 reports county-level total employment from 1999 to 2002 for the 11-county region. In 2002, a third of the region's 315,581 jobs were located in Catawba County. Burke and Caldwell counties had the next largest labor markets. Alleghany, Yancey and Mitchell counties had the smallest labor markets in the region.

North Carolina employment remained relatively flat for the 4 year period. Over this same period, the 11-county region experienced job losses with employment being 4 percent lower in 2002 than 1999. Within the region, Ashe, Avery and Watauga counties were the only jurisdictions that had job growth during the 4 year period. Alleghany and Yancey counties had the largest job losses during the period, 12 and 9 percent respectively.

Unemployment Rate

Table 5

Table 5 reports the county-level annual employment rate from 1999 to 2003 for the 11-county region. During this 5 year period, the nation experienced a recessionary period and a subsequent recovery that did not translate to significant job growth. In 1999, the counties in the 11-county region generally had unemployment rates below the state figure (7 of the 11 counties with a rate equal or less than the state rate). But in 2003, only two counties had employment rates lower than the state figure.

Comparisons of how each area did during this period of transition provides insights into the strength of an area's labor market. As a benchmark, North Carolina's unemployment rate increased 3.3 percentage points from 3.2 to 6.5 over this 5 year period. Counties experiencing the largest increases in unemployment rates include: Catawba (6.9 pct pt), Alleghany (6.7 pct pt), Alexander (5.9 pct pt), Burke (5.6 pct pt), and Wilkes (5.2 pct pt). The counties with the smallest increase in unemployment rates were Ashe (0.7 pct pt), Avery (1.0 pct pt) and Watauga (1.0 pct pt).

Retail Sales

Table 6 provides county-level retail sales for the region. In 2003, approximately 4.5 percent of North Carolina retail sales were within the 11 county area. Recent trends indicate the largest growth in retail sales were in Alexander, Ashe and Mitchell counties. Retail sales have remained flat in Alleghany, Caldwell, Catawba and Watauga counties, while sales have declined in Yancey County. Over a third of the region's retail sales occurred in Catawba County while Alleghany and Yancey counties only made up approximately 1 percent of regional sales each. The subregion of Alleghany, Ashe and Wilkes counties made up about 16 percent of the region's sales.

Table 6

Property Values

Table 7

Table 7 reports total property valuation for the 11-county region by county for the years 1999-2002. For North Carolina, total property valuation increased 25 percent over the four year period. The region's property valuation increased 28 percent. Watauga County experienced the greatest rise in property valuation with a 77 percent increase while the smallest rise was in Wilkes County (7 percent).

The sub-region of Alleghany, Ashe and Wilkes counties increased about 13 percent over the four year period. Catawba County has substantially higher property valuation than any other county in the region,nearly three times the next highest county-wide value. Mitchell, Alleghany and Yancey counties each have total property valuation under one billion dollars. Alexander, Avery and Ashe counties have valuations between one and two billion while the remaining counties have property valuations approximately 3 billion dollars.

Figure 4 illustrates the county-level rate of unaffordable housing in 2000 for North Carolina. The rate of unaffordable housing is an indicator of property values relative to income levels. The figure illustrates that the spatial distribution finds the coastal region has a relatively higher rate of unaffordable housing while the mountain region's rate is relatively low. For the 11-county region, the rate of unaffordable housing falls in the lowest category (10.9 to 15.0 percent). Watauga County is a notable exception and falls in the category with the highest rate (25.1 to 29.9 percent).

Figure 4

Investment

Table 8 reports the county-level new industry dollar investment by county for the years 1999-2001. For the state, the level of new industry investment increased 25 percent over the three year period. Though incomplete, the data indicates low levels of new industry investment for the 11-county region. As one may expect, Catawba and Burke counties received substantially greater investment than the other counties during this period. Ashe County attracted significant new investment dollars considering the jurisdiction's population.

Table 8

Table 9

Table 9 provides the dollar investment towards expanding existing industry for the region during the same period. During this 3 year period, North Carolina experienced a 27 percent decline in expanded industry investment. County-level performance within the region was mixed. Catawba County had the largest drop in expanded industry investment between 1999 and 2001,an 84 percent decline. Such investment remained fairly stable for Avery and Caldwell counties.

Table 10